I have been watching the GOP returns come in over the past few weeks. The results have made me think about a variety of issues (structurally, psychologically, and culturally) about the Republican nomination process and Republican primary voters. All of them bother me in a different way.
Let’s start with the structural problem/strength of the GOP nomination process. The reality is, Republicans are not picking our nominee…independent voters are. John McCain is wining for one reason and one reason only. Many of the early primary states allow independents to vote in the Republican primary. McCain can’t win in states that have “closed primaries.” It is why Bush beat him in 2000. But with independents carrying the day in N.H. and Michigan he has become the proverbial “front runner.” On one level this bothers me. I want Republicans to pick the Republican nominee. True blue Republicans care about illegal immigration, low taxes, and free speech. John McCain does not. On the other hand, independent voters may be saving the GOP from its own myopia. All the polls suggest John McCain is the most likely candidate to beat both Hillary and Obama. If Republican primary voters got who they really wanted, we might end up with Huckabee and that would result in another 1964 election for us. In the end, we true blue conservatives may have to abdicate purity for electability.
The second thing that disturbs me is how quickly GOP primary voters are willing to change their mind based on the results of a primary in another state. What ever happened to picking a candidate based on who you thought would be the best president. I looked at polls that had Giuliani way up in Florida and then down a few days later because McCain won in Michigan. Did McCain unveil any new ideas? No. Did Giuliani make a gaff? No. So what is the reason for the big shift? Unfortunately, it’s the “bandwagon effect.” People think they will be a winner if the back a winner. It’s why there are lots more Patriots fans this year. But, I think that is a terrible way to vote. If you want to change your mind based on a debate or a policy shift, fine. But I have no respect for people who change their vote simply because someone won a primary a few days earlier.
Finally, the Ron Paul over Giuliani vote in S.C. is just scary. What does that say about the sophistication of Southern Republican voters? On one side you have a man who wants a complete pull out of Iraq…the consequences be damned and an economic policy that suggests we should eliminate the Fed. On the other side, we have a man who turned the biggest city in American around. He cleaned up the crime, brought the city back in the red, performed magnificently on 9/11, and is the only guy in the debates to actually answer the questions. But S.C. voters picked Paul over Giuliani 2 to 1.
All this tells me it is time to change our nomination process. First, I don’t think the first in the nation primary should be a state with an “open primary.” Second, I don’t think we should put S.C. in such a prominent position. Third, I wouldn’t have our first in the nation caucus in a state where evangelicals have so much power.
I’ll save my next post for what I think we SHOULD do.